The global container shipping market continues to maintain strong momentum. Driven by significant rate increases on U.S. trade lanes, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has risen for the tenth consecutive week, reaching a four-year high (since August 2022, when the index fell below 3,200 points and entered a rapid downward phase). However, as supply-demand dynamics vary across routes, market trends have begun to diverge. While U.S. routes remain at elevated levels, signs of softening have emerged, while European routes face downward pressure. Industry participants are closely watching whether the current rally can sustain through the peak season in the third quarter.

On July 3, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange released the SCFI at 3,326.87 points, up 2.69% from the previous week, marking ten consecutive weeks of gains and setting a new four-year high. The current upswing has been primarily driven by U.S.-bound routes. The U.S. East Coast route saw weekly gains of 12.35%, while the U.S. West Coast route rose 9.28%. By contrast, the Europe route inched up only 0.54%, and the Mediterranean route gained 1.23%, with growth notably moderating and trends across routes beginning to diverge.

With shipping lines' latest round of rate hikes taking effect on July 1, multiple carriers raised GRI (General Rate Increase) on U.S. routes by approximately US$1,300 to US$1,500. Current market quotes show freight rates at around US$7,500 per 40-foot container for the U.S. West Coast route and approximately US$8,900 to US$9,000 for the U.S. East Coast route. European routes, meanwhile, have risen from around US$5,100–5,300 to US$5,500–5,800. However, industry insiders point out that while U.S. routes remain at high levels, signs of cooling are beginning to emerge in the market.

On one hand, new capacity on the U.S. West Coast route continues to be deployed, including MSC's resumption of weekly service, Maersk's new routes, and a large number of extra-loader vessels, increasing space availability. Some freight forwarders have already begun to secure preferential rates. On the other hand, shipping lines have also relaxed their policy on slot allocation for long-term contract customers. The previous ratio of "three spot containers matched with one long-term contract container" has been adjusted by some carriers to "two spot containers matched with one long-term contract container," reflecting an easing of capacity tightness. Meanwhile, long-term contract rates on the U.S. West Coast remain between US$1,800 and US$2,100 per 40-foot container, still showing a significant gap with spot market prices. Industry sources believe that if this round of rate increases in early July fails to hold steadily, spot rates on the U.S. West Coast may be the first to correct.

In contrast, European routes face greater downward pressure. Due to relatively ample capacity supply, some major international freight forwarders have revealed that certain shipping lines are planning to lower rates on European routes as early as next week. The current round of rate hikes has also been significantly more modest than on U.S. routes, with increases of only about US$200 to US$400. Most freight forwarding companies also believe that the next round of rate hikes planned by shipping lines for mid-July will be difficult to fully implement. Current freight rates remain elevated primarily due to shipping lines' continued capacity management measures such as voyage cancellations and space control. Should the pace of capacity reductions weaken, upward momentum for rates may further diminish. Besides U.S. and European routes, other routes have generally declined. According to the latest SCFI data, the South America route (Santos) fell 7.82%, the Central/South America route (Manzanillo) dropped 6.66%, the India-Pakistan route (Nhava Sheva) declined 7.71%, and the Southeast Asia route (Singapore) decreased 2.05%.

Industry analysis suggests that the continued decline in freight rates on routes from China to Southeast Asia, South Asia, and other regional destinations reflects weakening demand following the early front-loading of peak-season cargo volumes, with the market beginning to return to a more normal rhythm. At the same time, capacity on regional routes continues to increase. Recently, Seaboard Marine has returned to the Asian regional market, and MSC has further expanded its South China–Central Vietnam service, resuming calls at Nansha, Ho Chi Minh City, and Singapore ports, adding further capacity supply in the Asian regional market. Looking ahead, logistics industry practitioners indicate that the Middle East situation remains highly uncertain, and shipping lines' willingness to return to the Red Sea route in the short term remains limited. The global container shipping market continues to face structural issues such as vessel shortages, container shortages, and space shortages. With the traditional peak shipping season for the third quarter now in full swing, overall freight rates are expected to remain at elevated levels. However, trend divergence across different routes may further intensify. On U.S. routes, close attention should be paid to price movements following the release of new capacity, while European routes face greater downward adjustment pressure.

Four major U.S.-Europe routes continue to rise, with Europe-Mediterranean gains moderating:

• Far East to Europe: US$3,418/TEU, up US$76 from the previous period, up 2.27%; 40-ft container at US$5,797, up US$31, up 0.54%.

• Far East to Mediterranean: US$4,717/TEU, up US$51 from the previous period, up 1.09%; 40-ft container at US$6,985, up US$85, up 1.23%.

• Far East to U.S. West Coast: US$6,630/FEU, up US$563 from the previous period, up 9.28%.

• Far East to U.S. East Coast: US$8,296/FEU, up US$912 from the previous period, up 12.35%.

• Persian Gulf route: US$4,292/TEU, down US$200 from the previous period, down 4.35%.

• South America route (Santos): US$7,230/TEU, down US$740 from the previous period, down 9.28%.

• Australia-New Zealand route: US$2,279/TEU, up US$201 from the previous period, up 9.67%.

In the near-sea routes, Far East to Southeast Asia fell US$14, down 2.05%, at US$668/TEU; Far East to Japan's Kansai and Kanto both held steady at US$323 and US$333 respectively; Far East to South Korea fell US$14 to US$163, down 7.91%.